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Thursday, November 08, 2007

Games being played on Wallstreet during Subprime CRISIS

Citibank is an ANGEL, who made the announcement few days back to launch a SUPERFUND
This fund will loan out and SAVE the US Economy from "Subprime crisis"?
Right?........WRONG.

Don't we all know that banks/corporations don't do anything for charity. They are looking forward to their profits, balance sheets, and stock prices. & They will now play all kinds of games which will help them save themselves at the cost of others (investors in the fund).

Basics First: Why create a fund:
Companies like Citi, JPM don't issue securities themselves, they create SIV (Strcutured Investment Vehicles) which are independent subsidiary corporations of these banks who issue these securities in market, like the ones that issues Subprime Tranched Loans (CDOs) in the market. Due to Subprime crisis (mentioned in POST BELOW), these securities lost their value and suffered huge loses, but these securities were on balance sheet of subsidiary company and not citibank. So Citibank BALANCE SHEET is TECHNICALLY not affected by these writedowns and writeoffs. Investors who bought these securities & suffered loses have no claim on Citibank's assets and cant make up. So people now want Citibank to take over these subsidiary & consolidate them with Citi.
Ultimately it is Citi who is suffering loses (due to mispricing cashflows are affected & CASH is all tht matters, rest all is sham), citi's stock price is going down, management needs to do sth to loan itself out.

It makes announcements of Super-fund. What is that?
These companies will create a fund wherein again the individual and insti investors will put in money to HELP Citibank loan out its torubled subsidiaries. Citi will buy back these assets (written down in value) at FAIR market value and back these securities/Fund by its own assets rather than its subsidiary.

GAME1
Now who decides this FAIR Market Value? Citibank ofcourse.
& Who's money is at stake? Ofcourse NOT Citibank's.
So I feel again some game playing is happening here.

Game2:
Game playing has just started. What is in store? Big banks are going to play more games with higher stakes. Although these are troubled times, but thr r hidden opportunities all along. Citi will necessarily have to do writeoffs. State & tax Laws do allow "Extraordinary Loses" as writeoffs from balance sheet, which do NOT impact income statement. But these happen once in a while. Now since Citi will writeoff its loses in Subprime market without affecting it income statement, it will as well write off any other loses
-in different line of operations
-during previous years
-anticipated loses as well
Since Share holders will be tolerant (beyond obvious share price fall), they will expect Subprime writeoffs but miss out on Non-subprime writeoffs.
Not tht this has started happening, but tht is my guess, will happen & will be revealed several yrs down the line when u r too far away from this crisis.

What will this do?
This will help Citibank boost its performance next year (or may be few years to come) beyond what will be real performance.


So who gets the heat?
CEO.
Board fires the CEO & few guys here & there & blame them for all the screwup. Gets new ppl, who wipes out mistakes (writeoffs) & create a clean board for themselves to show PROFITS on, which are no less deceptive them done by prev management.
Isn't board itself responsible for this? They were supposed to be awake all this long.

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